Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

Application of X-ray computed tomography for analyzing cleat spacing and cleat aperture in coal samples   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

S. Mazumder  K.-H.A.A. Wolf  K. Elewaut  R. Ephraim 《International Journal of Coal Geology》2006,68(3-4):205-222

New techniques to determine distributions of cleat aperture, cleat orientation and cleat spacing from CT scans have been developed. For cleat orientation and spacing distributions, two different coal blocks were scanned. The CT scans have been analyzed for the three orthogonal directions. Histograms of the cleat orientations are bimodal, expressing the typical cleat texture of face and butt cleats and bedding perpendicular relaxation fractures. Deviations up to 20° from the peak values in the cleat orientation distributions were used as input for automated image analysis of cleat spacing. Distributions of the cleat spacing measurements are related to the face and butt cleat directions. The term “relevant cleat length” is introduced as a measure to extract the amount of cleat length involved with the cleat spacing measurements. The ratio ranges from 0.03 to 0.38 and expresses the difference in cleat texture in both samples. Cleat spacing versus relevant cleat length shows sample specific patterns for face cleat, butt cleat and bedding. To describe cleat aperture quantitatively, peak height and missing attenuation have been used. The image of a cleat was seen as a convolution of a rectangular fracture profile with a Gaussian point spread function.  相似文献   

Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns     

Robert Shcherbakov  Jordan Van Aalsburg  John B. Rundle  Donald L. Turcotte   《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):53

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.  相似文献   

Modèles géostatistiques de concentrations ou de débits le long des cours d'eau     

Chantal de Fouquet  Caroline Bernard-Michel 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(5):307-318

Estimating concentrations or flow rates along a stream network requires specific models. Two classes of models, recently proposed in the literature, are generalized, to the intrinsic case in particular. We present a global construction by ‘streams’, i.e. on the whole set of paths between sources and outlet. Combining stationary or intrinsic one-dimensional random functions leads to stationary or intrinsic models on segments, with discontinuities at the forks. A construction from outlet to sources, leads to stationary or intrinsic models on each stream, without any discontinuity at the forks. The linear variogram is found as a particular case. The extension to the linear model of coregionalization is immediate, allowing a multivariate modelling of concentrations. To cite this article: C. de Fouquet, C. Bernard-Michel, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

湿地功能快速评价中的若干理论问题   总被引：9，自引：5，他引：9  

殷书柏  吕宪国 《湿地科学》2006,4(1):1-6

针对目前湿地功能快速评价中存在的不足之处,分析了产生这些不足的原因及湿地功能快速评价过程中存在的一些基本理论问题。分析表明:湿地功能快速评价方法是为了达到“湿地功能无净损失”目的,是在需要评价的湿地如此之多而从事湿地功能评价的专业人员又极其缺乏的情况下发展起来的。它对于湿地恢复与重建以及湿地受人类活动干扰程度的评价是非常有效的;在湿地功能快速评价过程中,把相对未受人类干扰的参照湿地的功能指数规定为1,这就使得快速评价方法不能对参照湿地的功能进行评价,而目前最需要评价其功能的湿地往往就是这些相对未受人类活动干扰的湿地;在相同水文地貌的湿地类型内评价湿地功能之间的差异,这使得快速评价方法不能评价湿地的水文地貌功能;由于快速评价的结果都是相对的功能指数,并不能说明湿地所提供的功能量是否满足人们的需求,因而在决策中不能单独使用;快速评价都是“一次调查就获得结果”,同时由于快速评价过程中指标选择的主观性、指标赋值的主观性、采样点空间设置的主观性以及采样时间的主观性,对于具有时空变化特征的湿地功能的评价结果的可重复性和科学性是很低的。为了使湿地功能评价的结果对管理和决策具有指导意义,基于湿地功能量计算的、定量的评价湿地功能的方法必须开发出来。针对不同的评价目的,湿地功能评价可采用双重参照标准:一是以自然为参照来评价湿地功能受人类活动影响的程度以及湿地恢复与重建成功与否;二是以人类需要为标准来评价湿地提供的功能量是否满足了我们的期望,以便采取措施改进湿地功能来满足人类的需求。  相似文献   

The Usage of Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) in Designing Blast Pattern     

G. U. Aldas  S. Kadioglu  E. Ulugergerli 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2006,39(3):281-290

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A comparison of chironomid biostratigraphy from Lake Vuolep Njakajaure with vegetation, lake-level, and climate changes in Abisko National Park, Sweden     

Markus Heinrichs  Lena Barnekow  Sandra Rosenberg 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(2):119-131

Chironomid remains from the sediment of Lake Vuolep Njakajaure reflect limnological conditions resulting from changing climate and vegetation throughout the Holocene, but do not strictly follow accepted climate trends or the vegetation history based on regional pollen and macrofossil analyses. Chironomid community changes appear to be influenced by organic nutrient input from the surrounding catchment vegetation and lake hydrology, both of which are indirectly responding to some combination of climate change, hypolimnetic oxygen concentration, and changes in basin morphology. The chironomid-based quantitative mean July air-temperature reconstruction differs from other regional quantitative records; this discrepancy is likely related to limnological conditions particular to Lake Vuolep Njakajaure. Comparison of a northern Swedish temperature transfer function and one from western Canada reveals differences in the mean July air-temperature optima of several common taxa, suggesting that the existing conservative estimates of Holocene climate change in northern Sweden may be underestimated due to the limited temperature gradient captured by the Swedish training set.  相似文献   

The multilevel fast multipole method for forward modelling the multiply scattered seismic surface waves   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Özcan Çakir 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(2):663-678

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Crustal constraints on the uplift mechanism of the Western Ghats of India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Pankaj Kr. Tiwari  G. Surve  G. Mohan 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(3):1309-1316

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Biological and Geochemical Record of Anthropogenic Impacts in Recent Sediments from Lake Pupuke, Auckland City, New Zealand     

Paul Augustinus  Michael Reid  Sofia Andersson  Yanbin Deng  Mark Horrocks 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(4):789-805

Frozen sediment cores from Lake Pupuke in Auckland City, New Zealand, contain a high resolution decadal to annual scale record of changing lake paleoenvironments and geochemistry that reflects changing landuse and hydrology in the catchment over the past c. 190 years. A reliable chronology is available from AMS ¹⁴C and ²¹⁰Pb dating of the sediments, with the timing of the older part of the record supported by the first appearance of pollen of introduced Pinus and Plantago lanceolata associated with European settlement of Auckland in the early 1840s. Diatom stratigraphy, sediment elemental and carbon isotope geochemistry reflect changes in sediment sources and lake conditions commensurate with European development of the Lake Pupuke catchment, in particular enhanced algal productivity controlled by the influx of nutrients after c. 1920 AD. Attempts to prevent nuisance algal blooms in 1933, 1934 and 1939 using CuSO₄ addition produced Cu spikes in the sediment that allowed confirmation of the accuracy of the ²¹⁰Pb chronology. Hence, the elemental and isotopic composition of the Lake Pupuke sediments reflect the timing of significant anthropogenic activities, rather than climatic variations, that have occurred within the watershed over the past c. 190 years. The comparison of records of land use change in the catchment with the multi-proxy record of changes in the sediments usually allowed unambiguous identification of the signatures of change and their causes.  相似文献